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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/24 11:11

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower and wheat is 4 
to 8 cents lower at midday.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 30. The dollar index is 15 
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with 
crude down 1.60. Livestock trade is lower with hogs the downside leader. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold 6.80 higher.


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the 
gains Thursday with broad ag weakness and overbought conditions. Ethanol 
margins remain poor with the weaker corn values, but ethanol futures remained 
mired at the lower end of the range. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term 
movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the way into the 
end of the month. Basis should remain sideways to slightly firmer. The weekly 
export sales showed improvement at 1.006 million metric tons (mmt), with 
142,428 metric tons (mt) hitting the daily wire. On the March contract, support 
is the 20-day at $3.87, with resistance the recent high at $3.93 3/4.


   Soybeans trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to bore 
into resistance levels. The trade is waiting to see export sales, and South 
America is not adding much support with good progress there. Meal is flat to 
$1.00 lower, and oil was 20 to 30 points lower. The Brazilian real remains very 
cheap, as well, hurting U.S. export competitiveness. South American weather 
remains within the recent pattern for soybeans, as well, with early harvest 
underway. Basis has remained steady at processors with the strong crush margins 
and poor weather. Weekly export sales were led by products with 790,000 metric 
tons of soybeans, 641,900 of meal and 55,600 of oil. The March chart support is 
at $9.00 with psychological support there, and resistance is the lower 
Bollinger band at $9.07.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower at midday with Chicago trade the downside 
leader this morning as we reverse further from the recent highs. The strong 
dollar is adding pressure. Cold threats remain limited for the Plains with most 
of the moisture staying to the east. Western snow cover remains limited, and 
warmer temps are expected to return to most areas in the short term. KC is at 
an 86-cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 20-cent 
discount. Weekly export sales improved at 696,000 metric tons. The March KC 
chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.86, which we are testing at 
midday. Resistance is the upper Bollinger band at $5.03.


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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